the 993 market

March 30, 2020 /// issue no. 90

I have an obsession I can’t shake. Shortly after my son was born I had a strong itch for a new car. I had owned the same car for 9 years and found myself in a very different financial position than when I originally acquired it. I knew I wanted German and I wondered if it was time to buy a forever car. It came down to two cars - my all-time favorite 993 911 or my modern favorite the E90 M3. At the time they were priced about the same, and as is customary, I picked the wrong investment as air-cooled 911 values have skyrocketed and the E90 M3 has slowly depreciated.

Air-cooled Porsche’s still command a pretty penny, but those prices seem to have stabilized and perhaps have even dropped a little bit. I have found weekends to be truly weekends as we shelter-in-place so I turned to Bring a Trailer for some data.

If their chart history is complete, Bring a Trailer has sold 258 993s on its auction platform and a 993 engine. This represents a little over 5 years of data and year-to-date they have sold 23 993s. They say the cheapest way to 911 ownership is via the targa top models. I must say that I think the 993 Targa is amongst the best 911 targas, but I am just not interested in a pop or drop top.

What remains is 169 993 Coupes. I am on the hunt for a street car, so caged racecars are out, and so too are collectibles like the Turbo or RUF models. We can back out specials like the GT2 and I am not looking for an RWB. Further pulling out the Tiptronic coupes we come to a data set of 138 6-speed cars. The 4S serve as outliers because who knows, I might go crazy one day.

993C - BaT All-Time

The above chart shows all auction ending prices, even if the vehicles did not meet reserve. I used the trailing 20 auctions as a regression line. If there’s one thing we can see from the chart it’s that Bring a Trailer has certainly picked up as a marketplace. The other thing you will notice is the increasing trends from a moving average in the mid-50s all the way up to the high-60s. After summer of 2019 you see seasonality or a slow down in the market.

993C - BaT since 1/2019

If we zoom to recent history you can see the dip after an outlier 22k-mile C2S and a 17k-mile C4S were sold. But you also see a smearing of sub-50k cars.

Conclusions:

  • 993s in the time of COVID-19 seem to be priced higher than last years summer slump. Those of us fortunate to be shopping for used Porsches seem to be unaffected.
  • The trendline isn’t dropping all that much anymore. Might be time to pull the trigger if the world economy doesn’t collapse. Or buy another one if it does!
  • If you’re patient there are 993 deals to be had on Bring a Trailer.

Coffee time,
Steven


daily automotive addiction.